Questions? Email us at [email protected]
EdgedUp runs 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on every Polymarket and Kalshi contract to estimate a fair probability. When our model disagrees with the market price by more than a threshold, that gap is the "edge." EdgedUp shows you where the market may be mispriced — for informational purposes only, not as financial advice.
The edge is the difference between our model's fair probability and the current market price. A +12% edge on a YES outcome means our model puts the probability 12 percentage points higher than the market. A positive edge favors betting YES; a negative edge favors betting NO. Edges below ~1% are treated as noise (shown as ~0%).
No. EdgedUp provides quantitative analysis for informational and educational purposes only. Our outputs are mathematical estimates based on available data — they can be wrong. Prediction markets involve real risk of loss. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility. See our Terms of Service for the full disclaimer.
For each market, EdgedUp runs 50,000 simulation paths using a Bayesian Monte Carlo engine. The engine incorporates market structure, historical base rates, and AI-assisted contextual analysis. Each path produces a probability estimate; the distribution gives us fair value, a 90% confidence interval, and a Kelly fraction for position sizing. For events with many outcomes (>10), a Bayesian triage step pre-selects the most interesting outcomes for deep analysis.
EdgedUp covers Polymarket and Kalshi. You can browse all available events from the Markets page after signing in, or paste a specific market URL directly into the simulate view. Coverage is limited to markets with sufficient pricing data for reliable simulation.
Founding Members are the first 100 users who joined during beta. They get the Pro tier at the locked-in founding price of $29/month — a permanent discount from the regular Pro price of $49/month, for as long as their subscription remains active. If you cancel your Founding Member subscription, you cannot return at the founding rate.
Log in and go to Account Settings, then select "Manage Subscription." You can cancel at any time. Your access continues until the end of the current billing period. For billing questions or refund requests, contact [email protected]. See our Terms of Service for full refund policy details.
The most common causes are: the market has insufficient data for simulation, the market has recently resolved, or a temporary service issue. Try refreshing or analyzing a different market. If the problem persists, email [email protected].
EdgedUp currently supports up to 100 outcomes per event. Larger events (such as PGA Championship with 250 outcomes) exceed our current processing limits. Support for these larger events is on our roadmap. In the meantime, you can analyze individual outcomes from these events one at a time.
EdgedUp uses a large language model (LLM) to generate an AI thesis for each market — a plain-language explanation of the key factors driving the edge, potential risks, and the confidence level of the analysis. Market identifiers and parameters are sent to our AI provider; no personal information is included. See our Privacy Policy for details.
Email [email protected]. We respond within 24 hours on business days. For billing issues, include your account email and a description of the problem.