EdgedUp applies Monte Carlo simulation to prediction market trading — running thousands of scenario iterations to model the distribution of possible outcomes for any given trade or strategy.
Instead of asking "will I win this trade?", EdgedUp asks "what is the expected value and variance of this position across 10,000 simulated outcomes?"
How Monte Carlo works in EdgedUp
Input your probability estimate and position size
EdgedUp simulates thousands of market scenarios
See expected value, variance, and drawdown distribution
Adjust your strategy until the simulation shows positive edge
Deploy to real markets with quantified confidence
Why Monte Carlo for prediction markets?
Prediction markets involve binary outcomes under uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is the right tool because it models the full distribution of possible outcomes rather than a single point estimate — giving you a realistic picture of your edge, not just a guess.