Prediction market strategy, Monte Carlo simulation, and quantitative edge — for traders who use math, not gut feeling.
Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios to estimate probability distributions. Here's how prediction market traders use it to find fair value and detect mispriced contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Most prediction market traders either bet too big or too small. The Kelly criterion is the mathematically optimal formula for position sizing when you have an edge. Here's how to apply it to Polymarket and Kalshi.
The prediction market tool landscape has three tiers: data display, AI analysis, and quantitative simulation. We break down what each tier offers, who the key players are, and why simulation is the next frontier.